Introduction:
If there is one thing today that all of us as human beings consume across all different economic strata and class from the richest to the poorest across all countries is that of energy. Well, the energy we consume today is dominated by those of what is referred to as non-renewables or fossil fuel energy that emit carbon or are based out of carbon. In the world today we find ourselves in climate change is proposed in the popular imagination as the sole big crisis for the current and future generations to solve. A large part of climate change is attributed by the use of the fossil fuel-based energy for our consumption and production of power and the emissions caused by it that has led us to the world of climate disasters we find ourselves in. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) the global body for energy in 2019 itself power generation was found to be accounting for over two thirds of total emissions in 2019 and have been responsible for almost all global growth since 2010 [1]. Thus, as the focus of climate change has remained on the area of energy, the idea of an energy transition has become popular and important to understand. But what exactly is the energy transition that is being referred to or being spoken about?
Defining the Energy Transition:
The Energy transition is a term in the contemporary time is used in the context of transitioning from fossil fuel-based energy to renewable. Thus, what in turn has been a major goal of the energy transition is having a greener economy or as often referred to in the debate of climate change as an economy that is net zero. Either way the target of having an energy mix whether dominated by fossil fuels or renewables is having sufficient energy sources for maintain economic growth and prosperity. An appropriate definition of the energy transition is provided by S&P Global that defines it as “Energy transition refers to the global energy sector’s shift from fossil-based systems of energy production and consumption — including oil, natural gas and coal — to renewable energy sources like wind and solar, as well as lithium-ion batteries.” [2]. Now that the definition of the energy transition is out of the way it is also important reflect on the reality of the energy transition in the world especially for countries like India that represent the developing world.
The Renewable Growth Story:
The energy transition as noted earlier is based on the fundamental growth in several types of renewables in the energy mix. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency(IRENA) a multilateral body that monitors it, in the latest available data for 2021 has noted that global renewable generation capacity amounted to 3 064 GW, of this Hydropower dominated with the largest share of the with a capacity of 1 230 GW across countries. This was then followed by Solar and wind energy accounted for equal shares of the remainder, with capacities of 849 GW and 825 GW respectively. With the remainder being shared by other sources such as bio-energy, geothermal etc. [3]. The growth has been especially remarkable in the last decade where the focus with regards to energy policy has been shifting to the green economy. In 2021 alone a growth of 9.1% in renewable energy. The chart below from IRENA reflects this change in increase in share.
Source: IRENA [4]
The growth of renewable energy at the same while has been remarkable, a lot of this growth has been enabled by government support in the form of subsidies, tax incentives etc. The reason I believe it is important to highlight this is because it has been one of the major drivers and enablers of the renewable energy growth across the world. According to the International Energy Agency across the globe support to the renewable energy sector has been supported with funds amounting to 480 billion USD [5]. Of this support that has been extended to multiple sectors ranging from energy efficiency to clean transport, investment in technologies like carbon capture (CCUS) etc. Most of this support however is dominated by the developed world that has the fiscal resources to extend this. Followed by Europe comes Asia, North America, and the rest. For the developing countries there exists a dilemma in terms of their energy policies in their abilities of providing support to establishing renewable energy.The following charts below are a representation of the details of the support mentioned here.
Figure 1: Government Stimulus and Support
Source: IEA
Figure 2: Sector and technology allocations
Source: IEA
Figure 3: Regional wise distribution
Source: IEA
The Dilemma for Energy Policy of Developing countries:
A major turning point in climate change and energy policy I would argue was the 2015 Paris climate accords where major emerging market countries like India and China as key players pledged and reflected a change in their policy of taking a leadership in the adoption of renewable energy sources. Under which both have committed and pledged to participate in the adoption climate mitigation and adaptation technologies that include renewable energy sources as a part of it [6]. However, at the same time India, China and the wider developing world face a fundamental dilemma I would argue. This dilemma that I believe exists for developing states energy policy makers is the continuation of the use of fossil fuel based energy in the power grids and power mix for the simple reason being the economic and financial capacities that every nation faces in the global state. This is not to say that renewable energy will not rise in the share of developing states energy mix. To explain this in more detail let’s consider the case of India.
India and the dilemma of energy policy:
India’s energy policy has been evolving especially in the case of the last decade. The focus has been shifting to moving to greener fuels or sources and setting huge targets for renewable energy adoption. India’s adoption of renewable energy has been significant where the renewable sources of energy today play a significant role and are close to being almost half of India’s power capacity. The data available from the Ministry of Power reflects this.
Table 1: Installed generation capacity non fossil fuels as on 30.09.2022.
| Category | Installed generation capacity (MW) | % Of share in Total |
| Hydro | 46,850 | 11.5 % |
| Wind, Solar & Other RE | 118.080 | 29.0 % |
| Wind | 41.666 | 10.2 % |
| Solar | 60,814 | 14.9 % |
| BM Power/Cogen | 10,206 | 2.5 % |
| Waste to Energy | 495 | 0.1 % |
| Small Hydro Power | 4,899 | 1.2 % |
| Nuclear | 6,780 | 1.7% |
| Total Non-Fossil Fuel | 171,710 | 42.1% |
Source: Ministry of Power, Govt of India[7]
While the growth of renewable energy in India is a positive that must be highlighted, what cannot be discounted is the role that fossil fuel-based energy will continue to play in India’s economy and its energy policy. This was most evident in India’s negotiation position in COP 26 that was held in Glasgow in 2021 in the UK. The COP 26 was the 26th meeting of the Conference of Parties set up under the UNFCCC(UN Framework and Convention on Climate Change) that deals with the issue of climate change. This dilemma of energy policy was highlighted by India and China pushing for the phrase “phase down” instead of “phase out” from the final agreement, which stalled negotiations and eventually was adopted in the final pact. The final pact at COP 26 notes “We cannot stop at coal. We need to phase down the use of all fossil fuels across the energy sector. At COP26, 34 countries and 5 public finance institutions committed to end direct public support (c.$24 billion annually) for the international unabated fossil fuel energy sector by the end of 2022. This is a huge leap forward and will free these funds and many more in the private sector for deployment in renewable energy.” [8] [9].
India’s Net Zero target of reaching net-zero is set to be by 2070, an announcement made by Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India is further evidence of this dilemma. India’s target of reaching net-zero is beyond the timeline set by other important states and blocs such as the US, EU and even China. Mr. Modi in his address to the COP26 summit had said –
First– India will reach its non-fossil energy capacity to 500 GW by 2030.
Second– India will meet 50 percent of its energy requirements from renewable energy by 2030.
Fourth– By 2030, India will reduce the carbon intensity of its economy by less than 45 percent.
And fifth- by the year 2070, India will achieve the target of Net Zero. These panchamrits will be an unprecedented contribution of India to climate action” [10]
– Narendra Modi, Prime Minster of India
This dilemma that I have outlined is something that all policy makers who oversee energy security policy are not only aware of but one of the most crucial decision points of the future of their nations energy security. As outlined earlier whether it be fossil fuel or non-fossil fuel the goal of any energy policy is to enable economic activity to not only continue but via growth generate economic prosperity for all its citizens. And for those countries who are still poor in terms of per capita income and economic/ financial resources , it is a dilemma that they will continue to grapple with while at the same time developing policies for climate change that are sustainable for the long term.
There are some other important perspectives that have been articulated in this debate. One such is by Dr Rathin Roy, former member of the PM- Economic Advisory Council and now the MD of the Overseas Development Institute in the UK. He has argued that our focus in terms of climate change has focused too much on energy policy and the framing of the whole green energy debate is shaped ironically and pushed by those countries who have already industrialised and have been the largest historical emitters are now pushing for climate action based on their terms (Decolonising Climate Action, n.d.) [11]. This I would suggest is an under highlighted point and argument which will be the topic of another issue of this blog for the future.
Conclusion:
In conclusion to sum it all up, the growth of renewable energy in our contemporary times is all in all a net positive. Renewable energy is at the heart of an energy transition that is being put at the centre of the climate change. The reality however of this energy transition is that while green energy is a part of the solution, there is a dilemma fundamentally all poor and developing countries face in order to adopt green energy but also maintain economic growth at the same time which whether some of us may not like it, is supported by fossil fuel based energy for the foreseeable future.
References and Citations:
[1] Greenhouse gas emissions from energy data explorer – data tools. (n.d.). IEA. https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-energy-data-explorer
[2] What is energy transition? (n.d.). https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/articles/what-is-energy-transition
[3] Renewable capacity highlights- https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2022/Apr/IRENA_-RE_Capacity_Highlights_2022.pdf?la=en&hash=6122BF5666A36BECD5AAA2050B011ECE255B3BC7
[4] Renewable capacity highlights- https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2022/Apr/IRENA_-RE_Capacity_Highlights_2022.pdf?la=en&hash=6122BF5666A36BECD5AAA2050B011ECE255B3BC7
[5] How much will renewable energy benefit from global stimulus packages? – Analysis. (n.d.). IEA. https://www.iea.org/articles/how-much-will-renewable-energy-benefit-from-global-stimulus-packages
[6] Paris Climate Accords 2015- https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/english_paris_agreement.pdf
[7] Power sector at a glance all India | government of India | ministry of power. (n.d.). https://powermin.gov.in/en/content/power-sector-glance-all-india
[8] COP26 Pact- https://ukcop26.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/COP26-Presidency-Outcomes-The-Climate-Pact.pdf
[9] The Glasgow climate pact. (n.d.). UN Climate Change Conference (COP26) at the SEC – Glasgow 2021. https://ukcop26.org/the-glasgow-climate-pact/
[10] National statement by pm at cop26 summit in Glasgow. (n.d.). https://www.pmindia.gov.in/en/news_updates/national-statement-by-pm-at-cop26-summit-in-glasgow/
[11] Decolonising climate action. (n.d.). ODI: Think Change. https://odi.org/en/insights/decolonising-climate-action/
India and the World | Hritik Bhasin 
Energy conservation is big concern now and for the future.
Very well explained 👏👏👏👏👏
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